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Very grateful to Chuck Jaffe @ChuckJaffe for the chance to discuss the economic implications of the Supreme Court tariff decision. Bottom line: Even if the Trump administration is unable to recreate the tariffs defacto, the tariff regime that has emerged since April 2025 will cause long run harm to the economy. The erratic, extortionary conduct of the administration has rendered the United States an unreliable, untrustworthy partner. The rest of the world has every incentive to vaccinate against the vagaries of US policy. We see this in the efforts by the European Union to cultivate free trade arrangements with South America and with Asia. It may also be seen in moves by European defense ministries to prefer European made military equipment. Such equip requires access to upgrades and replacement parts and hence stable relations. Efforts to bully these development may partially slow down such changes, but they will proceed. The conduct of international economic (and political) relations has also spilled over to other sectors. The decline of foreign tourism to the United States is one example. The decline of foreign students at American universities is another (one actively advocated by the administration). This cuts off a major US export-higher education. More important, it is damaging the flow of talent to the US, which will greatly damage science and technology here.

@sarahadams Not trying to make light of this. But imagine needing notes for: Handgun - tight spaces AR - open spaces