TheInnerTraderV
TheInnerTraderV @TheInnerTraderV ·
Volatility contracts before it expands. Notice the quiet—it's the market drawing breath. In stillness, opportunities form. Move only when structure confirms, never before. #Volatility #Markets
TheInnerTraderV
TheInnerTraderV @TheInnerTraderV ·
Calm markets test patience; volatile spikes reveal impulse. True edge lies not in prediction but in measured response to liquidity shifts. Observe flows, then act with quiet certainty. #Volatility #Liquidity
Navnoor Bawa
Navnoor Bawa @navnoorquant ·
Replying to @navnoorquant
Live dashboard right now: → VIX = 31.05 (fear regime) → VVIX = 124.43 (extreme vol-of-vol) → ρ = −0.99 (still at the boundary) → Implied-realised spread: 100th percentile of 2015–2025 The joint calibration problem is still open. #Volatility #OptionsTrading
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Navnoor Bawa
Navnoor Bawa @navnoorquant ·
Replying to @navnoorquant
HMM vs XGBoost. April 9, 2025. Tariff spike. VVIX = 142.5. → HMM output: Regime 1 → XGBoost output: Regime 2 ✓ HMM trained on 2010–2019. No tariff regime in that window. It defaulted to its most common historical state. #MachineLearning #Volatility
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Navnoor Bawa
Navnoor Bawa @navnoorquant ·
Replying to @navnoorquant
The backtest blocked new positions in Regime 2. But held existing ones through regime transitions. That is not risk management. That is an inconsistency. Fix: exit everything on any R2 transition. Result: +$300K across 7 years. #Volatility #AlgorithmicTrading
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Navnoor Bawa
Navnoor Bawa @navnoorquant ·
Replying to @navnoorquant
A −4% day looks IDENTICAL whether it came from a jump or continuous diffusion at the daily frequency. You cannot separate them without intraday data and BNS bipower variation decomposition. That is the identification problem. Not a bug. Physics. #Volatility #OptionsTrading
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Navnoor Bawa
Navnoor Bawa @navnoorquant ·
I ran Bates SVJ on live SPX options. λ hit 8/yr. μⱼ = 0%. ρ stayed at −0.99. 3 extra free parameters made the fit WORSE. The model didn't fail. The data did. Here is why — and what it means for joint calibration 🧵 #QuantitativeFinance #Volatility
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BitRss News
BitRss News @RssBit ·
Bitcoin Volatility and Institutional Moves Dominate Crypto Headlines Bitcoin's price action has been heavily influenced by geopolitical developments, with analysts pointing to the Ukraine conflict as a key driver beh ➤ go.bitrss.com/cSRbk #Dominate #Volatility
Bitcoin Volatility and Institutional Moves Dominate Crypto Headlines - BitRss - Crypto World News

Bitcoin faces renewed volatility as geopolitical tensions and market sentiment drive sharp price swings, while institutional interest in blockchain infrastructure and regulatory scrutiny of altcoins...

From bitrss.com
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