Your insights sparked something, so I turned them into a visual mind map.
Happy to share if you want to check it out!
@Neoo_Nav
📌 Infinit Labs
#IN : Valuation Framework (Not Hype) 🧵
[1/8] What Is $IN? 🎯
– Newly launched token by Infinit_Labs.
– Mission: simplify DeFi vee-sharing.
– Goal of this thread: decide if $IN is overvalued / fair / undervalued using fundamentals.
[2/8] North-Star Question 🧭
Is price justified by onchain activity + real growth + user integration in token design?
Answer it with data, not vibes.
[3/8] Metrics That Actually Matter 📊
Product/Usage
– MAU/WAU of users & Monthly Active Agents (executions, success rate).
– Strategy AUM, retention (D7/D30), conversion from viewers → executors.
On-chain
– Protocol revenue (fees/bot usage/premiums) recorded onchain.
– Staking ratio (% of supply staked) & circulating/unlock schedule.
– Fee share to stakers, buyback/burn mechanics (if any).
Market
– Listings/liquidity depth, slippage, perp OI (healthy vs. speculative).
[4/8] Quick P/S Model (Top-Down) 🧮
1. Annualize onchain revenue: R = 30D fees × 12.
2. Pick a growth-adjusted multiple: P/S = 6–10× (bear/base), 10–20× (growth).
3. Implied Equity Value = R × P/S.
4. Compare to FDV and circulating mcap.
👉 If Implied Value ≫ FDV → undervalued (all else equal). If ≪ FDV → overvalued.
[5/8] Fee-Sharing Yield Model 💸
– Yield ≈ (fee_share × R) / Staked_Marketcap.
– Cross-check: is yield sustainable (fee-driven) vs. inflationary (emissions)?
– High real yield + rising usage = stickier holders → lower sell pressure.
[6/8] Scenario Testing 🔬
– Bear: flat agents usage, low conversion → P/S 6–8×.
– Base: steady agent adoption, rising AUM → P/S 10–12×.
– Bull: breakout integrations + sticky staking → P/S 15–20×.
Stress: unlock events, staking outflows, fee dips.
Sensitivity: +/– 20% to R or staking ratio can swing fair value meaningfully.
[7/8] Catalysts vs. Risks ⚖️
Catalysts
– Product cadence (V2+), agent marketplace depth, new integrations, real yield growth.
Risks
– Signal vs. noise in AI strategies, mercenary farming, unlock overhang, governance capture, regulatory drift.
Mitigants
– Curation/ratings, anti-Sybil, sane vesting, transparent fee dashboards.
[8/8] Verdict: How to Call It 📌
4/ screens undervalued when you observe:
– Rising fee run-rate, high/healthy staking ratio, improving unit economics (fees/user).
– Agent executions & strategy AUM compounding without outsized emissions.
Else: it’s fair/overvalued.
👉 Build your sheet, track the inputs weekly, and let mechanics > memes drive your view.
@KaitoAI @Infinit_Labs
