💰Athletics @ Blue Jays Betting Breakdown March 27th, 2026💰
The Athletics line up will go against Kevin Gausman. Gausman makes his money by getting guys to chase. He did, however, have a concerning HHB rate and fly ball rate in 2025. Gausman was good against righties but rea025. However, Nick Kurtz is playable here. Kurtz saw righties much better in 2025 as oppose to lefty arms. His high walk rate shouldn’t matter here with the strike pumper in Gausman. Kurtz doesn’t chase so if he can make contact in the zone against Gausman, it should be hit in the air and plenty hard. The Athletics have other decent options here but nothing I feel is safe enough to make a bet on. If this lineup doesn’t chase, they could hit Gausman relatively hard here. Jays definitely have some good bullpen arms so they’ll have to do damage in large chunks off Gausman.
The Jays will face Luis Severino. Sevy is going to go after batters. He doesn’t walk guys and he doesn’t strike them out either. He got hit hard in 2025 but was much sharper against righties as opposed to lefties. He had a slightly above average GB rate so i’m looking at lefties who can hit the ball hard and keep if off the ground. Hard not to love this spot for Addison Barger. Facing Sevy, Barger should be putting hard balls in play and in the air and hopefully over the fence. Varsho is the king of pulled fly balls but does have a concerning strikeout rate even against someone like Severino. It shouldn’t be enough to steer you away from him, he’s a real HR threat. A non lefty bat that I still like a lot is George Springer. He doesn’t have the fly ball rate as Varsho, but he will hit the ball real hard off Severino in this one. The Blue Jays line up as a whole lines up really well in this one. It should play all the way through the game with a rough Athletics bullpen waiting.
The model is siding with the -165 favorites and giving the Blue Jays a 68.3% chance to win this game. Despite the list of long ball threats in this game, the model prefers the UNDER on the 8.5 total, projecting 7.1 runs being scored.
Model Predicted Score: 4-3 Blue Jays