This assumption may be valid, but it tells us very little about the future of the Iranian regime after the current conflict.
A. We simply don’t know how this campaign will end. If it concludes with an agreement that removes or eases sanctions, the regime will almost certainly emerge stronger. this is Israel’s primary concern.
B. If sanctions remain and given the dominant role of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), a different scenario is more likely, meaning a more authoritarian, poorer regime that prioritizes military buildup above all else. At the same time, not sure that large-scale public unrest will significantly challenge the system, particularly given the IRGC’s strengthened position and its ability to capitalize on perceived success in the conflict.
C. history matters. After the Iran-Iraq War, the regime was strengthened, at least in the short term.
D. We should also not underestimate the willingness of China and Russia to expand their support for Iran, nor Iran’s ability to leverage strategic assets like the Strait of Hormuz to extract economic and political concessions, potentially undermining the sanctions regime.
Bottom line is that the regime may emerge weakened in some respects, but also more radical, more confident in its own resilience, and more focused than ever on building its military power. The condition of the population will likely deteriorate further, but that alone does not necessarily lead to regime change. In fact, it may have the opposite effect.
In any case, it is worth waiting until the conflict concludes before drawing firm conclusions.
